banner

India’s Central Bank Suffers Another High Profile Exit and The Importance of Strong and Independent Institutions

Usually, RBI Deputy Governors tend to be away from media glare, and they rarely populate the general public’s awareness. But Dr Viral Acharya was different. He was vocal and his statements were often controversial which media could not always ignore. Dr. Acharya, who quit as Reserve Bank of India deputy governor on 24th June, is joining the long list of high profile exits caused by difference of opinion between institutions and ruling dispensation.

The previous occasion was when Dr Urjit R Patel had resigned as the RBI governor in December 2018. There were several issues between Patel and the government, a) Swaminathan Gurumurthy’s appointment to the RBI board in August 2018, b) there were reports that the government would invoke Section 7 of the Reserve Bank of India Act which empowers it to issue directions to the RBI. There were also open criticisms by Dr. Acharya targeted at the Govt on autonomy and independence of the RBI. It was not surprising to anyone that Patel resigned nine months ahead of the end of his term.

But, he was not a very different case vis-à-vis his predecessor, Dr. Raghuram Rajan. Dr.Rajan only had a tenure of three years which was not extended by the government and he went in September 2016. There were no confirmations on any bitterness from either side but it was very clear that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were not supportive of the idea granting any extension to one of the most high profile RBI Governors India has seen in the recent years.

Dr.Rajan was a well-known economist and almost had a rockstar status in local media, but he was also very vocal on issues not directly concerning RBI and perhaps had not supported each and every formal or informal directive from the government. That the exit was not smooth got further confirmation when two months after he left the RBI, demonetisation was announced. It was amply clear that Dr Rajan was not supportive of such a move.

Dr Arvind Subramanian, the government’s chief economic advisor had resigned in June 2018. After his resignation, things have actually worsened between him and the government and the most recent event is his criticism of GDP calculation methodology in which he claimed that India was perhaps inflating the growth rate. The other instance was the resignation of Dr Surjit Bhalla. Dr Bhalla resigned from the prime minister’s Economic Advisory Council in December 2018.

There are other officials as well who didn’t have a smooth working relationship with the Govt. P C Mohanan resigned as acting chairman of the National Statistical Commission along with member Dr J V Meenakshi in February 2019 to protest against the non-publication of the Periodic Labour Force Survey. In his media interactions, Mohanan said the data must be released whether the government likes the data or not and the fact was that the report suggested that India’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level in 45 years.

It is a fact that these officials are appointed by the government and the ruling dispensation has every right to adopt a “hire and fire” policy which suits them. However, the circumstances of these exits are more important than the event of resignation itself. When there are question marks on institutions’ independence and autonomy, the damage could actually be serious and long term.

Of course, markets didn’t react much to the resignations of either Dr.Urjit Patel or Dr. Viral Acharya, but it would be unwise to believe that these events are not important. There are also times when officials need to exercise a bit more restraint on what they say in public because in the age of 24×7 media coverage, the scrutiny is intense and these statements are not always ignored.

These controversies are totally unnecessary and hence, completely avoidable because these events reflect very poorly on India’s governance standards and how much respect the government shows to a dissenting opinion. Perceptions are important and they matter for a country hungry for more direct and indirect foreign investment. Hope better sense prevails on both the sides.

Research Team
EM Alpha LLC

For more EMAlphainsights on Emerging Markets, please visit https://emalpha.com/insights/. To know how you can use EMAlpha’s unstructured data on Emerging Markets for better investment decisions, please send us an email at [email protected].

About EMAlpha:

EMAlpha, a data analytics and investment management firm focused on making Emerging Markets (EMs) accessible to global investors and unlocking EM investing using machines. EMAlpha’s focus is on Unstructured Data as the EMs are particularly susceptible to swings in news flow driven investor sentiment. We use thoroughly researched machine learning tools to track evolving sentiment specifically towards EMs and EMAlpha pays special attention to the timely measurement of news sentiment for investors as these markets can be finicky and sentiment can be capricious.Our team members have deep expertise in research and trading in multiple Emerging Markets and EMAlpha’s collaborative approach to combining machine learning tools with a fundamental approach help us understand these markets better.

Disclaimer:
This insight article is provided for informational purposes only. The information included in this article should not be used as the sole basis for making a decision as to whether or not to invest in any particular security. In making an investment decision, you must rely on your own examination of the securities and the terms of the offering. You should not construe the contents of these materials as legal, tax, investment or other advice, or a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. The information included in this article is based upon information reasonably available to EMAlpha as of the date noted herein. Furthermore, the information included in this site has been obtained from sources that EMAlpha believes to be reliable; however, these sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. Information contained in this insight article does not purport to be complete, nor does EMAlpha undertake any duty to update the information set forth herein. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, by EMAlpha, its members, partners or employees, and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. This article contains certain “forward-looking statements,” which may be identified by the use of such words as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “should,” “planned,” “estimated,” “potential,” “outlook,” “forecast,” “plan” and other similar terms. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, estimates with respect to financial condition, results of operations, and success or lack of success of certain investment strategy. All are subject to various factors, including, but not limited to, general and local economic conditions, changing levels of competition within certain industries and markets, changes in interest rates, changes in legislation or regulation, and other economic, competitive, governmental, regulatory and technological factors affecting the operations of the companies identified herein, any or all of which could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results.