India Election

Synopsis:

• General Election: India, the world’s fifth largest and fastest-growing major economy, is undergoing a 44-day general election starting April 19, with nearly 970 million citizens eligible to vote.

• Modi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is anticipated to secure a third term, as indicated by local opinion polls and EMAlpha’s AI sentiment analysis. The opposition, primarily led by the Congress Party under the India National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has splintered due to ideological differences and defections.

• Economic Performance and Sentiment: Prime Minister Modi’s popularity is attributed to India’s robust economic growth post-pandemic. GDP surged 8.4% in the October-December quarter, with optimistic projections by the IMF and private analysts. International investors view Modi favorably, resulting in increased investment inflows and record-high international reserves.

• Financial Market Performance: Despite concerns about high valuations, the Indian stock market has shown strong performance, with a 19% increase in 2023 and a 7% rise year-to-date. Foreign portfolio investors have re-entered the market, while domestic retail investor participation has surged significantly.

• Bond Market and Derivatives: The local bond market has outperformed, attracting significant overseas flows after announcements by JP Morgan and Bloomberg to include Indian government bonds in their indices. India also boasts the most active derivatives market globally, although recent Reserve Bank regulations have impacted currency derivatives trading.