Latest EM Sentiment Drivers
Exports in the age of Tariffs
The post-Liberation Day tariff shock has accelerated a re-ordering of global trade. As protectionism re-emerges as a policy tool, exporters are being forced to adapt by diversifying markets, shifting product mixes, and re-engineering supply chains. We highlight several countries where these adjustments are already visible in the data.
Indonesia: Indonesia’s export performance has shown significant growth, with a notable increase in export volumes across various sectors. The Indonesian government has injected significant economic stimulus, amounting to Rp110.7 trillion, which has bolstered market confidence and supported export activities. This stimulus is part of a broader strategy to enhance economic resilience and growth, particularly in the textile sector.
Indonesia has reported a surplus in its trade balance, with notable increases in exports of automotive and cleaning products. Indonesia is actively pursuing new markets, such as Pakistan, where there is a growing demand for Indonesian spices. This strategic focus on diversifying export markets is expected to enhance trade opportunities and economic growth. Further, the increase in global commodity prices has positively impacted Indonesia’s export revenues, particularly in sectors like agriculture and mining, which are crucial for the country’s economy.
Indonesia Exports: Indonesian local language media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
Egypt: Egypt’s export performance has strengthened, with non-oil exports rising substantially. In 2025, Egypt recorded about a 17 % increase in non-petroleum exports to roughly $48.5 billion, contributing to a narrower trade deficit and reflecting growth across sectors such as building materials, chemicals, food products, and gold. The government has outlined ambitious export targets aiming to raise annual exports significantly by 2030 and is implementing policies to simplify trade procedures, leverage trade agreements, and integrate production into global value chains.
In 2025, Egypt also enacted a major new labor law (Law No. 14 of 2025), modernizing workplace standards, expanding worker protections, and updating employment frameworks. While these reforms contribute to a more stable, modern labor environment, their primary focus is on labor rights and workforce structures rather than export competitiveness per se. Export growth has also been supported by rising global demand in key markets including the UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Italy and the U.S. and by diversification into sectors beyond hydrocarbons.
Egypt Exports: Egyptian local language media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
Turkey: Turkey’s export performance in 2025 showed both resilience and sector-specific challenges. The country recorded a historic level of exports, with goods exports reaching approximately $273.4 billion, up about 4.5 % from the prior year, and combined goods and services exports estimated near $396 billion. Some sectors faced competitive pressures from rising input and energy costs – for example, the white-goods industry saw export and production declines – highlighting uneven performance across industries.
At the same time, several export segments performed strongly. The automotive industry led all sectors with around $41.5 billion in exports, while chemical products contributed about $31.9 billion, and defense and aerospace exports posted high growth rates. Turkey’s geographic position near European markets and ongoing trade diplomacy have supported demand for industrial and vehicle exports, particularly to key EU partners.
The government continues to push export diversification and higher value-added production through trade strategy initiatives, aligning with broader efforts to sustain export growth in the face of global headwinds.
Turkey Exports: Turkish media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
India Exports: India’s export sector experienced important disruptions in 2025 following the imposition of steep U.S. tariffs, which in many cases reached effective rates of around 50 % on Indian goods under President Trump’s tariff regime. This contributed to sharp year-on-year declines in shipments of key export items such as gems and jewellery to the U.S., which fell by around 44% between April and December 2025 and saw December export values drop by roughly 50% compared with the same month a year earlier.
Despite these headwinds, India’s overall exports have shown resilience, aided by diversification to other markets (including the UAE, Hong Kong, Australia, and Europe) and strategic trade policy adjustments that have helped cushion the blow from U.S. tariff pressures.
A major diplomatic and economic milestone came on January 27 2026, when India and the European Union concluded a historic Free Trade Agreement, expected to significantly lower or eliminate tariffs on the vast majority of trade between the two partners. This “mother of all trade deals” is poised to enhance India’s export competitiveness across a broad range of sectors, from textiles and apparel to leather, footwear, gems & jewellery, marine products, and engineering goods by improving market access in the EU.
The new FTA is also projected to substantially increase bilateral gems and jewellery trade, with industry estimates suggesting that trade in this category alone could more than double within a few years as tariff barriers are reduced.
India Exports: lndia’s local media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
Brazil Exports: Trump’s tariffs led to a notable decline in Brazilian exports to the U.S., with a reported decrease of 6.6% in 2025 compared to the previous year, amounting to $348.67 billion in total exports for Brazil. Specific sectors have been adversely affected, such as the soluble coffee market, which saw exports to the U.S. drop by 28.2% in 2025 due to the tariffs. Brazilian exporters are seeking alternative markets, leading to a diversification of export destinations.
In response to the tariffs, Brazil has successfully increased its exports to other regions, including a 30.29% rise in exports to the Middle East and significant growth in exports to countries like the United Kingdom, Colombia, and China. This shift is part of a broader strategy to diversify export destinations and mitigate the impacts of U.S. trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed by US on various Brazilian goods, including steel and agricultural products. Brazil’s government has actively pursued diplomatic and trade relationships with these emerging markets. For instance, the recent agreements with Indian refineries for oil sales highlight Brazil’s intent to strengthen its position in the Asian market, which is characterized by rapid economic growth and increasing demand for energy and agricultural products.
Brazil Exports: Brazil local media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
Mexico Exports: The sentiment surrounding Mexico’s exports has been mixed recently, reflecting both challenges and opportunities. The automotive sector, a key component of Mexico’s export economy, has faced significant declines. For instance, in 2025, the automotive industry exported approximately 3.39 million light vehicles, marking a decrease of 2.68% compared to 2024, which had seen record exports. Moreover, the overall economic outlook for 2026 appears uncertain, with expectations of no reduction in tariffs and potential delays in trade agreement reviews, which could prolong uncertainty in the automotive sector. This has led to concerns that the automotive industry is no longer the leading sector in Mexican exports, as it once was.
On a more positive note, Mexico’s overall export performance to the United States has reached historical highs, with a notable increase in non-automotive exports, which have maintained double-digit growth rates since 2023. This growth is supported by favorable tariff conditions under the USMCA (TMEC), allowing a significant portion of Mexican exports to enter the U.S. tariff-free.
Mexico Exports: Mexican media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
Japan Exports: The sentiment surrounding Japan’s exports over the last few weeks has been notably negative, primarily due to escalating tensions with China and the potential economic impacts of export restrictions. Japan could face significant economic repercussions from China’s export controls, particularly concerning rare earth materials and dual-use goods.
For instance, estimates suggest that Japan’s economy could suffer an annual impact of approximately ¥10.7 trillion (around $66 billion) if China’s restrictions on military and civilian goods are broadly applied.
Additionally, specific concerns regarding rare earth exports indicate that a three-month export ban could lead to economic losses of about ¥660 billion, potentially reducing Japan’s GDP by 0.11%. Reports indicate that shipments of Japanese goods, including sake and processed foods, have been delayed in Chinese customs since late November 2025. This is believed to be a direct consequence of the deteriorating diplomatic relations and may be part of a broader strategy of economic pressure from China.
Japan Exports: Japanese media based sentiment. -1.0 represents extreme pessimism, 1.0 represents extreme optimism.
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